{"id":10122,"date":"2023-02-09T07:05:17","date_gmt":"2023-02-09T07:05:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gfk-cfs.de\/?p=10122"},"modified":"2023-02-05T17:25:56","modified_gmt":"2023-02-05T17:25:56","slug":"cfs-survey-on-ecb-monetary-policy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gfk-cfs.de\/en\/news\/cfs-index\/cfs-survey-on-ecb-monetary-policy\/","title":{"rendered":"CFS survey on \u201cECB monetary policy\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"fusion-fullwidth fullwidth-box fusion-builder-row-1 fusion-flex-container has-pattern-background has-mask-background nonhundred-percent-fullwidth non-hundred-percent-height-scrolling\" style=\"--awb-border-radius-top-left:0px;--awb-border-radius-top-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-left:0px;--awb-flex-wrap:wrap;\" ><div class=\"fusion-builder-row fusion-row fusion-flex-align-items-flex-start fusion-flex-content-wrap\" style=\"max-width:1352px;margin-left: calc(-4% \/ 2 );margin-right: calc(-4% \/ 2 );\"><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-0 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><h3 style=\"text-align:justify;\">German financial sector takes a critical view of ECB policy to date. Further increases in key interest rates expected<\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\"><strong>Background:<\/strong> <\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">Since the middle of last year, the ECB has raised key interest rates in several increments to current levels of 2.5% for the main refinancing rate, 2.75% for the marginal lending rate and 2% for the deposit rate. Inflation rates have fallen somewhat from their peak values to around 9.6% in the Eurozone in December 2022 and 8.6% in Germany. Against this backdrop, questions arise regarding interest rate expectations for the Eurozone for 2023, and how market participants assess the ECB\u2019s inflation-fighting strategy to date.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\"><strong>Survey results:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">More than 70% of the survey respondents do not expect key interest rates in the eurozone to peak until the end of 2023 or even next year. On the other hand, just under 25% of respondents expect key interest rates to peak as early as mid-2023. The panel participants are largely in agreement about how much further key interest rates will rise. Over 70% of respondents believe that the main refinancing rate will rise from the current level of 2.5% to between 3% and 4%. Another 15% of respondents expect it to go even higher. \u201cThe survey shows the market\u2019s confidence that the ECB will be successful in fighting inflation. However, there is some uncertainty about how quickly the ECB will raise key interest rates further,\u201d says Professor Volker Br\u00fchl, Managing Director of the Center for Financial Studies.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">A majority of respondents (60.4%) are critical of the speed at which the ECB had to raise key interest rates last year. Many market participants are of the opinion that the ECB did not react in time, thus allowing high inflation rates to occur in the first place.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">\u201cMarket participants in the financial center had already warned of the dangers of inflation in mid-2021\u2014and thus in good time\u2014and called on the ECB to act,\u201d Hubertus V\u00e4th, Managing Director of Frankfurt Main Finance, recalls previous surveys. \u201cNow the ECB remains behind the curve for a while and must first rebuild credibility in the market. Experience shows that this will backfire, through a higher rise in inflation and ultimately interest rates.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">\u00a0<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">_______________________<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\"> <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">We would like to thank Frankfurt Main Finance e.V. for financially supporting the project. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/gfk-cfs.de\/media\/PM-Index-Q1-2023_eng_Sonderfragen.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Press Release (pdf)<\/a>\n<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/gfk-cfs.de\/media\/Praesentation_Q1_2023.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Presentation (pdf, German)<\/a>\n<\/p>\n\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[199,130,116],"tags":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.8 - 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