{"id":9721,"date":"2022-10-28T18:21:20","date_gmt":"2022-10-28T18:21:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gfk-cfs.de\/?p=9721"},"modified":"2022-11-02T22:23:26","modified_gmt":"2022-11-02T22:23:26","slug":"cfs-survey-on-economic-crisis-and-financial-stability-in-europe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gfk-cfs.de\/en\/news\/cfs-index\/2022-cfs-index\/cfs-survey-on-economic-crisis-and-financial-stability-in-europe\/","title":{"rendered":"CFS survey on \u201cEconomic crisis and financial stability in Europe\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"fusion-fullwidth fullwidth-box fusion-builder-row-1 fusion-flex-container has-pattern-background has-mask-background nonhundred-percent-fullwidth non-hundred-percent-height-scrolling\" style=\"--awb-border-radius-top-left:0px;--awb-border-radius-top-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-left:0px;--awb-flex-wrap:wrap;\" ><div class=\"fusion-builder-row fusion-row fusion-flex-align-items-flex-start fusion-flex-content-wrap\" style=\"max-width:1352px;margin-left: calc(-4% \/ 2 );margin-right: calc(-4% \/ 2 );\"><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-0 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><h3 style=\"text-align:justify;\">German financial sector expects a recession and sustained high inflation rates \/ Banks to remain stable <\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\"> <strong>Background:<\/strong> <\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">Europe\u2019s economy has been facing enormous challenges since the outbreak of war in Ukraine: high inflation rates, soaring energy prices and falling growth rates could plunge Europe into a severe recession. Extensive packages of measures have been initiated in Germany and in many other European countries to mitigate the impacts on the population. The question therefore arises as to whether a recession is likely in Germany in the coming year and how inflation is expected to develop. Due to large-scale government aid programmes, there are increasing concerns about a return of the sovereign debt crisis that has afflicted the European Union since 2010. Against this background, the stability of the German banking sector is also under discussion.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\"><strong>Survey results:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">A survey of financial industry professionals and managers conducted by CFS showed that over 90% of respondents expect a recession in the coming year. More than half anticipate a (price-adjusted) decline in Germany\u2019s GDP of up to 2%. More than 19% expect an even starker decline in economic output. \u201cThis means that the financial experts are clearly more pessimistic than the leading economic institutes, which only forecast slightly negative growth (-0.2%) for 2023 in their current joint diagnosis (autumn report),\u201d says Professor Volker Br\u00fchl, Managing Director of the Center for Financial Studies. \u201cNaturally, a recession would also impact the banks\u2019 earnings situation.\u201d <\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\"> Nevertheless, 78% of survey respondents believe that, even in a severe recession, the stability of German banks would not be threatened. Professor Br\u00fchl affirms this view: \u201cEuropean banks have become far more resilient in recent years and are well equipped to withstand a recession. This is also confirmed in the latest stress tests by the banking supervisory authorities.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\"> In September, the inflation rate in Germany stood at 10.0%, in the Eurozone at 9.9%. The ECB is attempting to combat the high levels of inflation by raising interest rates. At the same time, the euro is losing ground against the US dollar and government debt is rising in the euro area. \u201cDespite the ECB's repeated assurances to the contrary, an overwhelming majority of more than 90% of participants do not believe that the central bank will succeed in achieving its medium-term inflation target of 2% again in the next two years,\u201d explains Hubertus V\u00e4th, Managing Director of Frankfurt Main Finance. \u201cThis shows a change in inflation expectations that must be of concern to the ECB.\u201d In fact, a majority of 55% of panelists believe that it is likely or even very likely that Europe could experience a sovereign debt crisis similar to the one experienced in the years starting from 2010 again. \u201cRecent events in the UK have shown how sensitive the markets currently are to more debt,\u201d comments Hubertus V\u00e4th, Managing Director of Frankfurt Main Finance.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">\u00a0<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">_______________________<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\"> <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">We would like to thank Frankfurt Main Finance e.V. for financially supporting the project. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/gfk-cfs.de\/media\/PM-Index-Q4-2022_eng_Sonderfragen.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Press Release (pdf)<\/a>\n<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/gfk-cfs.de\/media\/Praesentation_Q4_2022.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Presentation (pdf, German)<\/a>\n<\/p>\n\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[134,130,116],"tags":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.8 - 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